It would carry a coronagraph to provide images of the sun that would allow forecasters to provide long-term warnings (one day to four days in advance) of a solar storm that might strike Earth. One option for monitoring solar activity-a dedicated satellite placed in orbit between Earth and the sun-would provide early warnings of a solar storm. They also include two approaches that CBO examined in relative detail: one to prevent or mitigate damage-deploying space-based sensors to monitor solar activity-and one to improve recovery-increasing the stock of replacement transformers, which are critical in allowing large amounts of electricity to flow throughout the grid. The approaches include improving information sharing, enhancing cyber protections, and improving physical security. The approaches identified are not an exhaustive list but, rather, illustrate the wide span of possibilities for reducing the risks of a large, long-lasting outage. But events like the 2015 cyberattacks in Ukraine, which targeted that country’s grid control systems, and a cyberattack in the western United States in early 2019, which briefly disrupted communications at several small generating sites, have increased awareness about risks and heightened concerns.ĬBO identified a number of approaches for boosting the security of the grid-approaches to either prevent or mitigate damage or to improve recovery after the damage has occurred. The utility industry has a number of operational and procedural protections that it uses to enhance the security of the electric grid and prevent or limit power outages. Approaches to Reduce the Costs of Major Threats Losses could also be considerably less depending on the extent of the disaster or attack the condition of the system, including whether the grid retained enough power to handle emergencies and the effectiveness of existing protections and recovery measures, among other factors. Some estimates suggest that losses in the economy could be in the hundreds of billions of dollars or even more than a trillion dollars in some scenarios. The likelihood of wide-ranging and long-lasting outages is small, but the consequences could be severe.
Human-made threats include a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (EMP)-most likely created by the detonation of a nuclear weapon at high altitude-which, like a severe solar storm, could overload and disable key components a cyberattack targeting generating plants or grid control systems and a physical attack against certain critical components. Naturally occurring threats include a burst of solar particles-referred to as a solar storm-that interact with Earth’s magnetic field and create a geomagnetic disturbance that could overload certain critical grid components a hurricane that could affect the supply of power along an entire coastal region and an earthquake that could damage or disrupt generating plants, transmission lines, and other equipment and, thereby, the power supply of extended areas. Though the grid faces a wide range of threats, the vast majority are localized and are handled by grid operators with minimal disruption for customers.īut the grid also faces a number of larger but rare threats that have the potential to cause regional disruptions that last longer. The delivery of power to customers is usually highly reliable. The power grid is a collection of generating plants, power transformers, transmission lines, and other equipment that helps move large quantities of electricity over long distances components that distribute smaller quantities to end users and collections of customers that use the power. The North American Power Grid and Major Threats It Faces The study discusses a range of illustrative approaches to enhance the security of the electric grid and some considerations for policymakers to take into account. This study by CBO examines a range of threats that could cause widespread, long-lasting disruptions for the electric grid, including ones beyond historical experience. Longer outages can result in spoilage of food and other perishables, forgone sales, the idling of resources in production processes, disruptions to the supply of water and fuels, and other threats to health and safety. Even short-term interruptions in the delivery of electric power result in economic losses or inconveniences for consumers and businesses. Not only are other energy sources often poor substitutes, but essentially every industrial and commercial process in the United States requires its use, and nearly all homes rely on it. A secure and reliable supply of electric power is a key component of modern economies.
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